To use the recent Forge Bowl event as an example, which the Spring Event now seems to be modelled after, I completely ignored the yardage aspect and dedicated the entirety of my rewards to try and get as many as possible of single event building - namely the Winners Plaza.

(80% in this case.) It will all come down to luck, not averages. For every chest opened players have an high chance every time of not getting the wanted piece. The odds reset each time and Inno have made it clear that it is quite possible that the event prize will not be won at all. Whilst it looks like a one in 5 chance, the odds are not aggregated and Inno have repeatedly stated this is the case. If they want the best chance of avoiding the pure garbage prizes, or maximise the odds of set pieces), then they'll having to choose the less effective in lantern spend. Players now need to open more chests to get a decent booby prize, are unable to use lanterns most efficiently to maximise odds of getting set buildings due to the rotating chests that were so despised during the Forgery Bowl, have to get more of the sets pieces from chests and (generally speaking) have once again been shafted by game mechanics that have been changed to push players towards gambling rather than earning prizes. (Even *with* that, and aiming lanterns at the set pieces that weren't in the Grand Prize chest I didn't get a full set last year, and the luck required this year is even more.) The grand prize was a decent bonus on top of the rewards you were aiming for, and also gave a small amount of aid in getting a complete set. Most people did this, so claiming it as the reason this year is fine is simply incorrect. You could save for specific rewards last year, as the chests didn't rotate and you could aim for the pieces you wanted when they arrived in the daily special.

Forge empires spring event 2018